Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

The northern ASEAN region was dry and cloudy overnight, apart from some showers over the southern parts of the Philippines and the Mekong sub-region. Based on the overnight satellite pass, few to isolated hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region. Slight smoke haze was observed over the northern parts of Myanmar and the eastern parts of Thailand. The overall hotspot and smoke haze situation over the Mekong sub-region could not be fully determined due to thick cloud cover.

Wet weather and cloudy conditions were observed over the southern ASEAN region. Hotspot activity remained low and no significant smoke plumes were observed from satellite imagery.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Increased showers are forecast to bring some respite to the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation over most of the Mekong sub-region for the rest of the week, except over the northwestern parts of the sub-region where dry weather is expected to persist. Elevated hotspots and smoke haze activities are likely to continue especially over this region, with a risk of transboundary haze occurrence. The Mekong sub-region is forecast to experience dry weather from next week. The prevailing winds over the northern ASEAN region is expected to turn light and variable in direction, apart from the southern parts of the Philippines where the winds are likely to blow from the northeast.

Showers are forecast to prevail over most of the southern ASEAN region, apart from the northeastern parts of Peninsular Malaysia where it is expected to be relatively drier. The overall hotspot and smoke haze situation is likely to remain subdued. The prevailing winds over the southern ASEAN region is forecast to blow from the west to northwest.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for February – April 2026

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon prevailed over the ASEAN region, with low-level winds blowing predominantly from the northwest or northeast, and typically persists over the ASEAN region until late March. During this period, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season as the monsoon rainband remains south of the Equator. While showers are typical over the southern ASEAN region during its traditional wet season, this area can experience periods of drier conditions during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, which typically takes place during February to late March. Around late March or early April, the prevailing low-level winds gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction as the Northeast Monsoon transitions into inter-monsoon conditions, when the showers gradually return to the northern ASEAN region.

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northeastern Maritime Continent. For February – April 2026 the above-normal rainfall is predicted to persist, along with below-normal rainfall for much of the central Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February – March 2026. La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent and northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia for FMA 2026.

With near- to below-normal rainfall predicted over the Mekong sub-region during the outlook period, further intensification of hotspots and smoke haze activities, with a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence, can be expected over fire-prone areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions. Over the southern ASEAN region, overall hotspot activity is expected to remain subdued. However, it could increase, with localised smoke plume occurrences, during periods of drier conditions under the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, especially in areas where below-normal rainfall is predicted.

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