Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

It was dry over most parts of the northern ASEAN region, except over the southern parts of the Philippines where there were showers. Based on the latest satellite observations, scattered to widespread hotspots were detected in Cambodia while a few to isolated hotspots were detected in Thailand, Lao PDR and the southern and central parts of Myanmar. Moderate smoke haze were observed over Cambodia and the central parts of Thailand. Slight smoke haze and localised smoke plumes were also observed in Myanmar and the northern parts of Lao PDR respectively. Cloudy conditions over Viet Nam obscured satellite observations there.

In the southern ASEAN region, a few hotspots were detected in Peninsular Malaysia as well as the northern and central parts of Sumatra. Moderate smoke plumes were observed to emanate from hotspots detected in the central parts of Sumatra.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Over the next few days, dry weather conditions are expected to continue over most of the Mekong sub-region. Under these conditions, the hotspots and smoke haze situation could remain escalated with a risk of transboundary haze occurrence, particularly over the fire-prone areas. The prevailing winds over the Mekong sub-region are expected to weaken and become light and variable in direction, while the prevailing winds over the Philippines are forecast to blow from the northeast.

The expected showers in the coming days could help to subdue hotspot and smoke haze activity over the southern ASEAN region. The prevailing winds over the region are forecast to blow mostly from the west or northeast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for February – April 2026

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon prevailed over the ASEAN region, with low-level winds blowing predominantly from the northwest or northeast, and typically persists over the ASEAN region until late March. During this period, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season as the monsoon rainband remains south of the Equator. While showers are typical over the southern ASEAN region during its traditional wet season, this area can experience periods of drier conditions during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, which typically takes place during February to late March. Around late March or early April, the prevailing low-level winds gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction as the Northeast Monsoon transitions into inter-monsoon conditions, when the showers gradually return to the northern ASEAN region.

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northeastern Maritime Continent. For February – April 2026 the above-normal rainfall is predicted to persist, along with below-normal rainfall for much of the central Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February – March 2026. La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent and northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia for FMA 2026.

With near- to below-normal rainfall predicted over the Mekong sub-region during the outlook period, further intensification of hotspots and smoke haze activities, with a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence, can be expected over fire-prone areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions. Over the southern ASEAN region, overall hotspot activity is expected to remain subdued. However, it could increase, with localised smoke plume occurrences, during periods of drier conditions under the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, especially in areas where below-normal rainfall is predicted.

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